Northwest Arkansas' stunning — yet sometimes painful

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Northwest Arkansas is a bit like an awkward teen — it’s going through a growth spurt that’s bound to bring some pain.

Driving the news: Essentially a cluster of 31 small to midsize towns, NWA is the 15th-fastest-growing area in the U.S., on pace to hit nearly 1 million residents by 2045.

That’s more than double its current size, and roughly equal to today’s population of Austin, Texas.

Why it matters: It’s a pivotal time for an area still tied to farmland, friendly neighbors and a comparatively inexpensive cost of living.

“I think we’re making strategic decisions to ensure [we avoid] some of the pitfalls of other cities around the country that have had such tremendous growth,” said Greg Hines, mayor of Rogers, Arkansas — a city of about 71,000 people sharing a border with east Bentonville.

The big picture: Organically and by design, NWA is in the midst of reinventing itself, slowly shaking the hillbilly stereotype associated with the Ozarks.

It’s packed with food establishments and art. It’s a Jetson-like test market for drones and driverless trucks. It’s a prime location for growing the advanced mobility and holistic health industries. And entrepreneurship is booming here.

The Wall Street Journal recently crowned Bentonville a “capital of cool,” citing new restaurants, galleries and other businesses.

State of play: NWA’s largest cities — Bentonville, Fayetteville, Rogers and Springdale — historically competed for industry and residents. But local leaders have warmed to a regional approach in the past decade or so, Hines told Axios.

Collaboration among the cities on issues such as mass transit, roads, infrastructure and attainable workforce housing will be key to mitigating the aches of growth, Hines said.

Commercial property vacancy rates in the area are at a record low, compared with a national all-time high.

Dozens of cranes punctuate the skyline, erecting hotels, the new Walmart HQ and other office buildings.

By the numbers: The region became the country’s 100th-largest metropolitan statistical area this year, with an estimated 576,000 residents, up from 356,000 in 2003.

The Northwest Arkansas Council reported 11,000 open jobs last week.

Statewide, more than 3,500 new businesses registered with Yelp between Jan. 1 and July, a 26% jump over the same period in 2022 and up 56% from 2019.

How we got here: Exponential growth over the past 20 years has largely been driven by the Walmart magnet.

In the early 2000s, suppliers — think Procter & Gamble, Ghirardelli and PepsiCo — began locating teams near their largest customer. The area was unofficially dubbed “Vendorville.”

In the early 1990s, when the executive recruiter Cameron Smith & Associates moved here, there were only 48 suppliers with offices near Walmart.

By 2021, that number had grown to 1,600 by the firm’s count — along with about 400 “suppliers to suppliers,” like design agencies and packaging specialists.

The rush to be close to Walmart was a boon for real estate, developers, build

The Great Recession took its toll, but the area fared better than other markets.

Reality check: NWA’s growth has been costly.

Housing prices soared as much as 60% between 2019 and 2022, traffic is worse than ever, and there are concerns about water quality as cities sprawl.

What they’re saying: “I do kind of see this region as being in the midst of an identity struggle,” said food and travel writer Anela Malik, who has relocated to NWA from Washington, D.C., twice.

“I do think that Northwest Arkansas, because it’s — I’ll be frank — a company town, you get a lot of benefits you wouldn’t get if you lived in another area.”

Worth’s thought bubble: As much as a horizon can be in focus for a rapidly flourishing region, the path seems clear: NWA is headed for an intersection of commerce rivaling Silicon Valley and quality of life unmatched anywhere.

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