Hurricane Lee swirls north, prompts watches in New England

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Hurricane Lee is expected to pass perilously close to Maine and over the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, and its large circulation will swipe eastern Massachusetts on Friday night, per the National Hurricane Center.

Threat level: Computer model runs, fed with data from hurricane hunter aircraft, depict the storm moving in a generally northward motion and then hooking closer to the U.S. coast as it turns into a Nor’easter type storm this weekend.

The NHC issued tropical storm watches for coastal areas of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and parts of Maine, including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. This includes the city of Boston.

Hurricane watches were issued at 11pm Wednesday ET for Stonington, Maine, to the U.S.-Canada border, New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island, and Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour.

In addition, a storm surge watch has been issued for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket, where a surge of 2 to 4 feet above normally dry land is possible if the storm hits at the time of high tide. Watches are typically issued about 48 hours before such conditions begin.

Of note: The storm may make landfall in or near the Bay of Fundy, which meteorologist Jeff Berardelli notes has the highest tidal range in the world at nearly 50 feet.

This would be “very dangerous in terms of surge” if it were to coincide with incoming tide, he wrote in an online post Wednesday.

State of play: Hurricane Lee is a large storm and growing further, with hurricane-force winds extending out to 115 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds reaching a radius of 265 miles.

“Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and Saturday” the NHC said.

Any heavy rain reaching eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island would come on the heels of damaging flash flooding that occurred this week. More rain hit the region on Wednesday on what was likely already saturated ground.

Between the lines: The storm track forecast is within the window when forecast errors tend to be lower, but shifts of about 115 miles to the east or west could still occur based on the accuracy of past forecasts.

The storm’s intensity forecast, specifically the rate at which it weakens and begins transitioning from a hurricane into a larger, non-tropical storm that still packs a wallop, is subject to greater uncertainty.

From the standpoint of storm impacts, however, whether it is called Hurricane Lee or “Post-tropical Cyclone Lee” makes little difference in how it will affect land.

Zoom in: Meteorologists at the National Weather Service forecast office in Boston stated their concerns about Lee in their local discussion Wednesday morning.

“No reason to bury the lead; the trend over the last 12 hours in most of the guidance has been to the west (aka toward [Southern New England]) which would increase the likelihood of significant impact[s] to our region,” they wrote.

It is likely that waves of 10 to 15-feet or higher will reach the area, the NWS said, with offshore waves far higher. In fact, models are showing wave heights of up to 70 feet well off the coastline.

Climate change-related sea level rise is already making such storms more damaging at the coast by allowing the waves to ride on top of a higher baseline water level.

Depending on the exact track, strong winds are likely to affect land, especially in Cape Cod and the islands during the Friday night and Saturday timeframe, along with the potential for heavy rain.

The intrigue: Maine is likely to see the strongest winds, largest waves and heaviest rains.

The NWS office in Portland, Maine, flagged the possibility of tropical storm-force winds there Friday night and Saturday, along with some rain and high surf.

Waves could exceed 30 feet in height, the NWS Portland office noted early Wednesday, “due to the motion of the storm leading to a phenomena known as dynamic fetch.”

“This will result in sneaker waves, sets of larger waves that come up much further and faster than the rest, resulting in very dangerous conditions along the beaches and rocks,” forecasters stated.

The storm track will determine the ultimate impacts in eastern Canada, but current forecasts would bring potentially damaging winds, heavy rains and coastal flooding to Nova Scotia, including Halifax, which has seen its share of damaging storms in recent years.

The bottom line: Hurricane Lee is unlikely to be just a “fish storm,” destined to stay at sea, after all.

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