Hurricane Lee swirls north, prompts watches in New England

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Hurricane Lee may pass perilously close to Maine and over the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, and it will swipe eastern Massachusetts on Friday night and Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.

Threat level: Computer model runs, fed with data from hurricane hunter aircraft, depict the storm moving in a generally northward motion, then hooking closer to the U.S. coast as it turns into a Nor’easter type storm this weekend.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for coastal areas of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and parts of Maine, including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. This includes the city of Boston.

Hurricane watches are up from Stonington, Maine, to the U.S.-Canada border, New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island, and Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour.

In addition, a storm surge watch has been issued for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket, where a surge of 2 to 4 feet above normally dry land is possible if the storm hits at the time of high tide. Watches are typically issued about 48 hours before such conditions begin.

Of note: The storm may make landfall near the Bay of Fundy, which meteorologist Jeff Berardelli notes has the highest tidal range in the world at nearly 50 feet.

This would be “very dangerous in terms of surge” if it were to coincide with the incoming tide, he wrote in an online post Wednesday.

State of play: Hurricane Lee is an unusually large storm and growing further, with hurricane-force winds extending out to 105 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds reaching a radius of 290 miles.

“Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and Saturday” the NHC said.

Any heavy rain reaching eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island would come on the heels of damaging flash flooding that occurred this week. More rain hit the region on Wednesday on what was likely already saturated ground.

Between the lines: The storm track forecast is much clearer on Thursday, though the storm could still shift subtly to the east or west as it approaches Maine and Nova Scotia.

The storm’s intensity forecast, specifically the rate at which it weakens and begins transitioning from a hurricane into a larger, non-tropical storm that still packs a wallop, is subject to greater uncertainty.

From the standpoint of storm impacts, however, whether it is called Hurricane Lee or “Post-tropical Cyclone Lee” makes little difference in how it will affect land.

Depending on the exact track, strong winds are likely to affect land, especially in Cape Cod and the islands during the Friday night and Saturday timeframe, along with the potential for heavy rain.

“Friday night Hurricane Lee will be knocking on our doorstep,” meteorologists at the NWS Boston forecast office wrote early Thursday morning.

Context: Climate change-related sea level rise is already making such storms more damaging at the coast by allowing the waves to ride on top of a higher baseline water level.

It is also leading to more frequent and higher magnitude instances of rapid intensification of hurricanes and tropical storms.

Earlier in its life cycle, Hurricane Lee jumped from a Category 1 to Category 5 storm in just 24 hours.

The intrigue: Eastern Maine is likely to see the strongest winds, largest waves and heaviest rains.

The NWS office in Portland, Maine, flagged the possibility of tropical storm-force winds there Friday night and Saturday, along with some rain and high surf.

Waves could exceed 30 feet in height, the NWS Portland office noted early Wednesday, “due to the motion of the storm leading to a phenomena known as dynamic fetch.”

“This will result in sneaker waves, sets of larger waves that come up much further and faster than the rest, resulting in very dangerous conditions along the beaches and rocks,” forecasters stated.

The storm track will determine the ultimate impacts in eastern Canada, but current forecasts would bring potentially damaging winds, heavy rains and coastal flooding to Nova Scotia, including Halifax, which has seen its share of damaging storms in recent years.

The bottom line: Hurricane Lee is expected to be a large and damaging storm when it reaches far eastern New England and Canada this weekend.

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