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Hurricane Lee is set to pass perilously close to Maine and over the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, swiping eastern New England on Friday night and Saturday with high winds, rain and strong winds, the National Hurricane Center said.

Threat level: Computer model runs, fed with data from hurricane hunter aircraft, depict the storm moving in a generally northward motion, then hooking slightly closer to the U.S. coast as it turns into a Nor’easter type storm this weekend.

  • Tropical storm warnings affected nearly 7 million people in Maine, Massachusetts and New Hampshire on Friday morning — including in Boston, Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard.
  • Hurricane watches are up from Stonington, Maine, to the U.S.-Canada border, New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island, and Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour.
  • This is the first hurricane watch for Maine since Hurricane Kyle in 2008, according to meteorologist Michael Lowry.
  • In addition, a storm surge watch has been issued for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket, where a surge of 1 to 3 feet above normally dry land is possible if the storm hits at the time of high tide. Watches are typically issued about 48 hours before such conditions begin.

    • Meanwhile, President Biden approved an emergency declaration for Maine late Thursday, authorizing FEMA to coordinate all disaster relief efforts in response to any impacts of the storm.

    Of note: The storm may make landfall near the Bay of Fundy, which meteorologist Jeff Berardelli notes has the highest tidal range in the world at nearly 50 feet.

  • This would be “very dangerous in terms of surge” if it were to coincide with the incoming tide, he wrote in an online post Wednesday.

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    State of play: Hurricane Lee is an unusually large storm and growing further, with hurricane-force winds extending out to 105 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds reaching a radius of 345 miles.

  • “Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the next couple of days,” the NHC said.
  • Swells generated by Lee were affecting portions of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada and other places including the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Bermuda on Thursday night.
  • “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” per the National Hurricane Center.

    • Between the lines: The storm track forecast became much clearer on Thursday, though the storm could still shift subtly to the east or west as it approaches Maine and Nova Scotia.

  • The storm’s intensity forecast, specifically the rate at which it weakens and begins transitioning from a hurricane into a larger, non-tropical storm that still packs a wallop, is subject to greater uncertainty.
  • From the standpoint of storm impacts, however, whether it is called Hurricane Lee or “Post-tropical Cyclone Lee” makes little difference in how it will affect land.
  • Depending on the exact track, strong winds are likely to affect land, especially in Cape Cod and the islands during the Friday afternoon into Saturday morning timeframe.
  • “Friday night Hurricane Lee will be knocking on our doorstep,” meteorologists at the NWS Boston forecast office wrote early Thursday morning.

    • Context: Climate change-related sea level rise is already making such storms more damaging at the coast by allowing the waves to ride on top of a higher baseline water level.

  • It is also leading to more frequent and higher magnitude instances of rapid intensification of hurricanes and tropical storms.
  • Earlier in its life cycle, Hurricane Lee jumped from a Category 1 to Category 5 storm in just 24 hours.

    • The intrigue: Eastern Maine is likely to see the strongest winds, largest waves and heaviest rains.

  • The NWS office in Portland, Maine, flagged the possibility of tropical storm-force winds there Friday night and Saturday, along with some rain and high surf.
  • Waves could exceed 30 feet in height, the NWS Portland office noted early Wednesday, “due to the motion of the storm leading to a phenomena known as dynamic fetch.”
  • “This will result in sneaker waves, sets of larger waves that come up much further and faster than the rest, resulting in very dangerous conditions along the beaches and rocks,” forecasters stated.
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