How Democrats could save Kevin McCarthy

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As Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) publicly floats a plan to team up with Democrats in an effort to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), some House Democrats say they’re not interested.

Why it matters: A single member can trigger a “motion to vacate” vote, but actually removing the speaker requires a majority of the House and would likely need substantial support from Democrats.

McCarthy’s allies say he can likely count on most of the Republican conference to support him. “The 180 to 200 or perhaps even more [of the 222 House Republicans] are willing to vote for McCarthy as long as it takes,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told Axios.

That would leave insurgents needing as many as 200 Democratic votes – nearly the whole caucus – to oust McCarthy.

What they’re saying: “Most of us came here to govern and get things done, not indulge Matt Gaetz when he has one of his tantrums,” Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) told Axios.

Another House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, predicted “some” Democrats may support a motion to vacate, but “most won’t.”

“No love for Kevin. But [there is] concern about more chaos, and who might take his place if he is booted,” the lawmaker said, calling McCarthy “the devil you know.”

The backdrop: Gaetz said last week that the right should try forcing a vote on impeaching President Biden, and that “if Kevin McCarthy stands in our way, he may not have the job long.”

On Sunday he doubled down, saying in a social media post addressed to Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.): “If I make a motion to remove Kevin, how may democrat votes can I count on?”

The explicit threats to try to oust McCarthy have been mostly limited to Gaetz.

McCarthy brushed off Gaetz’s threats on Monday, telling reporters he is “not at all” worried about losing his gavel and that Gaetz “should go ahead and do it.”

Back in May, Democrats floated a plan to protect McCarthy if GOP hardliners tried to oust him for cutting a bipartisan debt ceiling deal with Democrats.

McCarthy’s office at the time blasted such suggestions as “garbage” and said the speaker had “zero interest” in it.

While members of the right-wing Freedom Caucus ultimately did not push to eject McCarthy, they did shut down the House floor for more than a week – and the tensions have grown more strained.

Between the lines: Any Democratic support could be conditioned on McCarthy compromising on government funding – which would be a likely catalyst for a right-wing motion to vacate.

McCarthy “will almost certainly need [Democratic] votes” to avert a government shutdown later this month, one senior House Democrat said, but Republicans are “reneging” on spending levels set out in the debt ceiling deal.

“There’s little incentive for Democrats to support him in the event of a motion to vacate” as a result, the lawmaker told Axios – though they added: “It’s not too late, but it’s the fourth quarter and time is running out.”

What’s next: McCarthy has an exceedingly difficult task as he tries to find a spending compromise with Senate Democrats and the White House without touching off a revolt from some of his most conservative members.

Some of McCarthy’s right flank have said the House GOP’s party-line spending bills, which already set topline spending levels far below the bipartisan Senate appropriations bills, don’t go far enough with their spending cuts.

Gaetz plans to speak on the House floor Tuesday afternoon to “lay out his vision for the House of Representatives moving forward.”

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